7 Annex
Within the following tables (describing the models in alphabetical order), empty cells indicate that no information was found in the literature on this issue. “–” in a cell means that this issue is not applicable to the model in question.Field “Duration of model run:”
- C: Calibration to fit model parameters
- S: Scenarios for projections of future trends
- V: Validation using independent data
Name of model |
Household life cycle model for residential relocation behaviour
|
|||
Sources |
||||
Technical data
|
||||
Application
area
|
Covered area, physical boundaries |
Case study: Greater Amsterdam Area |
Extent of area |
350 square miles / About 800,000 people |
|
Spatial units |
20 zones |
Size or grain of grids/zones |
– |
Time horizon |
Time step |
1 year |
Duration of model run |
1971 – 1984 |
Modelling approach |
Simulation technique |
Spatial economics |
Qualitative or quantitative |
Quantitative |
Contents
|
||||
Main purpose |
Modelling household life cycles and their impact on residential
relocation behaviour and the urban housing market for a European
capital city.
|
|||
Main variables with relationships |
(1) households, (2) migration, (3) occupancy, (4) housing demand,
(5) dwelling supply in zones and dwelling types, (6) allocation of
households.
|
|||
Human
decision
making
|
Domain |
Not explicitly |
Temporal range |
– |
|
Typology (classes) of agents? |
Allocation of household |
→ if yes: what types? |
Households: single, 2-person household, 3-person household, 4+ person household, non-household |
|
Decision algorithm |
Rational choice, maximum utility |
Input into decision |
Population and household data |
Goals |
Authors’ opinion |
Successful runs, validation and scenarios.
|
||
Model development process |
Concept |
Given |
Quantification of relationships |
Empirical data |
Name of model |
Simulation of demographic changes and the housing market
|
|||
Sources |
||||
Technical data
|
||||
Application
area
|
Covered area, physical boundaries |
U.S. cities (census) |
Extent of area |
– / 203,190 people / 74,565 households |
Application
area
|
Spatial units |
U.S. cities (census) |
Size or grain of grids/zones |
– |
Time horizon |
Time step |
1 year |
Duration of model run |
1970 – 2007 or 2020 |
Modelling approach |
Simulation technique |
Spatial economics |
Qualitative or quantitative |
Quantitative |
Contents
|
||||
Main purpose |
Simulation of demographic changes (baby boom and baby bust)
and its influences on the housing market in the U.S.
|
|||
Main variables with relationships |
(1) population, (2) households, (3) housing market (demand,
prices), (4) economy (GNP)
|
|||
Human
decision
making
|
Domain |
Not explicitly |
Temporal range |
– |
|
Typology (classes) of agents? |
Allocation of household |
→ if yes: what types? |
Dummy household |
|
Decision algorithm |
Rational choice, maximum utility |
Input into decision |
Census data |
Goals |
Authors’ opinion |
Successful runs, validation and scenarios.
|
||
Model development process |
Concept |
Given |
Quantification of relationships |
Empirical data |
Name of model |
A System Dynamics Approach to Land Use / Transportation
System Performance Modeling
|
|||
Sources |
||||
Technical data
|
||||
Application
area
|
Covered area, physical boundaries |
Varies with application area; Case study: Montgomery County |
Extent of area |
– / About 800,000 people |
Application
area
|
Spatial units |
U.S. cities (census) |
Size or grain of grids/zones |
– |
Time horizon |
Time step |
1 year |
Duration of model run |
C: 1970 – 1980 V: 1980 – 1990 |
Modelling approach |
Simulation technique |
Spatial economics |
Qualitative or quantitative |
Quantitative |
Contents
|
||||
Main purpose |
Integrated land-use and transportation model for estimating
scenarios regarding transport policies
|
|||
Main variables with relationships |
Seven sub-models: (1) population, (2) migration, (3) household,
(4) job growth, employment and commercial land development,
(5) housing development, (6) travel demand and (7) congestion.
|
|||
Human
decision
making
|
Domain |
Not explicitly |
Temporal range |
– |
|
Typology (classes) of agents? |
Cohorts within population sub-model |
→ if yes: what types? |
Persons: age 0–17, 18–44, 45–64, 65 male and female / Households: single, married with children, married without children, male or female with children, other |
|
Decision algorithm |
– |
Input into decision |
– |
Goals |
Authors’ opinion |
First step is achieved, successful validation and
scenarios.
|
||
Model development process |
Concept |
Not stated |
Quantification of relationships |
Empirical data |
Name of model |
CLUE-s (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects)
|
|||
Sources |
||||
Technical data
|
||||
Application
area
|
Covered area, physical boundaries |
User-specified / Several examples published |
Extent of area |
User-specified |
Application
area
|
Spatial units |
CLUE: soft-classified data (large pixels with fraction of land-uses) |
Size or grain of grids/zones |
User-specified / CLUE: 7 to 32 km / CLUE-s: 20 to 1,000 m |
Time horizon |
Time step |
Iterative process stops when demand for land-use meets allocated area |
Duration of model run |
– |
Modelling approach |
Simulation technique |
Cellular automata |
Qualitative or quantitative |
Quantitative |
Contents
|
||||
Main purpose |
Tool for understanding land-use patterns, possible future scenarios
for given demand
|
|||
Main variables with relationships |
Input: Pre-defined change in demand for land by different
sectors for whole simulation area → CLUE-s assigns new
land-uses per grid
Each cell: most preferred land use based on suitability of
location and competitive advantage of different land use types
(demand), check: is land use change allowed? If no: next most
preferred land use is chosen
|
|||
Human
decision
making
|
Domain |
Not explicit decision making |
Temporal range |
– |
|
Typology (classes) of agents? |
– |
→ if yes: what types? |
– |
|
Decision algorithm |
– |
Input into decision |
– |
Goals |
Authors’ opinion |
Case-study specific
|
||
Model development process |
Concept |
Not mentioned |
Quantification of relationships |
User-specified: empirical analysis, expert knowledge, spatial interactions, conversion elasticities |
Name of model |
CUF 2 (California Urban Futures)
|
|||
Sources |
||||
Technical data
|
||||
Application
area
|
Covered area, physical boundaries |
San Francisco Bay Area (California) |
Extent of area |
1.8 million ha |
Application
area
|
Spatial units |
Grid cells |
Size or grain of grids/zones |
100 × 100 m |
Time horizon |
Time step |
Econometric: 10 years / Probabilities for land use change: once per simulation |
Duration of model run |
C: 1985 – 1995 / S: ? |
Modelling approach |
Simulation technique |
Cellular automata |
Qualitative or quantitative |
Quantitative |
Contents
|
||||
Main purpose |
Simulating urban growth, scenarios for future development
|
|||
Main variables with relationships |
Top-down approach: future trends of population, household,
jobs → are assigned to grid cells
Econometric models predict future population, households,
employment (10 year intervals)
LUC-model: estimates probabilities for land use change out of
historical data, and simulation engine assigns probabilities to
cells
Probability of land use change (multinomial logit models)
for a cell from i to j = f (initial site use, site characteristics,
site accessibility, community characteristics, policy factors,
relationships to neighbouring sites) → probabilities are
interpreted as bids for (re-)development → population and jobs
are assigned to cells by bids
7 urban land-use categories: undeveloped, single-family
residential, multifamily residential, commercial, industrial,
transportation, public
|
|||
Human
decision
making
|
Domain |
Not explicit decision making |
Temporal range |
– |
|
Typology (classes) of agents? |
– |
→ if yes: what types? |
– |
|
Decision algorithm |
– |
Input into decision |
– |
Goals |
Authors’ opinion |
Achieved
|
||
Model development process |
Concept |
Not mentioned |
Quantification of relationships |
Calibration using maps of land use change |
Name of model |
CURBA (California Urban and Biodiversity Analysis)
|
|||
Sources |
||||
Technical data
|
||||
Application
area
|
Covered area, physical boundaries |
San Francisco Bay Area (California) |
Extent of area |
See CUF-2 |
Application
area
|
Spatial units |
Grid cells |
Size or grain of grids/zones |
100 × 100 m |
Time horizon |
Time step |
|
Duration of model run |
|
Modelling approach |
Simulation technique |
Cellular automata |
Qualitative or quantitative |
Quantitative |
Contents
|
||||
Main purpose |
Development of policy scenarios of urban growth, impact on
habitat change/biodiversity
|
|||
Main variables with relationships |
Two components: (1) urban growth model and (2) policy
simulation and evaluation model / Urban growth model is based
upon CUF-2
Policy simulation and evaluation: several growth scenarios →
impact on habitat change and habitat fragmentation
|
|||
Human
decision
making
|
Domain |
No explicit decision making |
Temporal range |
- |
|
Typology (classes) of agents? |
– |
→ if yes: what types? |
– |
|
Decision algorithm |
– |
Input into decision |
– |
Goals |
Authors’ opinion |
Achieved
|
||
Model development process |
Concept |
See CUF-2 |
Quantification of relationships |
See CUF-2 |
Name of model |
ILUMASS (Integrated Land-Use Modelling and Transportation
System Simulation)
|
|||
Sources |
||||
Technical data
|
||||
Application
area
|
Covered area, physical boundaries |
Dortmund and its 25 surrounding municipalities |
Extent of area |
About 2,000 km2 / 2.6 million people |
Application
area
|
Spatial units |
Statistical zones (total: 246) and grid cells |
Size or grain of grids/zones |
Grid cells: 100 × 100 m |
Time horizon |
Time step |
One year |
Duration of model run |
S: 2000 – 2030 |
Modelling approach |
Simulation technique |
Coupled simulation system including agent-based simulations |
Qualitative or quantitative |
Quantitative |
Contents
|
||||
Main purpose |
Dynamic simulation model with a focus on urban traffic flows,
including activity behaviour, changes in land use, and effects on
environment
|
|||
Main variables with relationships |
Five modules (+ integration module): 1. changes in land use,
2. activity patterns and travel demand, 3. traffic flows, 4. goods
transport, 5. environmental impacts of transportation and land
use
Land use → demand for spatial interaction (work, shopping
trips, etc.) → traffic → environmental impacts
Feedbacks: (a) transport → accessibility of locations → location
decisions of households, firms, developers. (b) environmental
factors → location decisions (e.g., clean air, traffic noise)
Land use module: moving households, location of firms,
investment of developers, new industrial area
|
|||
Human
decision
making
|
Domain |
Various, e.g., transport, household location, daily activity plans |
Temporal range |
Depending upon domain (daily travel behaviour vs. moving) |
|
Typology (classes) of agents? |
Yes |
→ if yes: what types? |
Not mentioned |
|
Decision algorithm |
Various (Markov, Logit, Monte-Carlo) |
Input into decision |
Depending upon domain, feedbacks included |
Goals |
Authors’ opinion |
Time of report: work in progress, later papers
all focus on single modules
|
||
Model development process |
Concept |
Not mentioned |
Quantification of relationships |
Not mentioned |
Name of model |
ILUTE (Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment
model)
|
|||
Sources |
||||
Technical data
|
||||
Application
area
|
Covered area, physical boundaries |
Tests for Toronto area |
Extent of area |
5 million people |
Application
area
|
Spatial units |
Two versions: grids and buildings |
Size or grain of grids/zones |
2 parallel approaches: Grid: 30 × 30 m / Buildings as objects |
Time horizon |
Time step |
Varying with sub-models |
Duration of model run |
V: 1986 – 2001 / S: 10 – 20 years into future |
Modelling approach |
Simulation technique |
Agent-based simulation |
Qualitative or quantitative |
Quantitative |
Contents
|
||||
Main purpose |
Evolution of an entire urban region with emphasis on transport
|
|||
Main variables with relationships |
Land development → location choice → activity schedule →
activity patterns → back to land development and all other
variables in chain transportation network → automobile ownership
→ travel demand → network flows → back to transportation
network and all other variables in chain influences
|
|||
Human
decision
making
|
Domain |
Activity/travelling scheduling, route choice, real estate market, behaviour of economy, land development, household ownership |
Temporal range |
Depends upon domain. E.g.: typical travel day is computed once per simulation year per agent type. |
|
Typology (classes) of agents? |
Yes |
→ if yes: what types? |
For households, individuals, firms |
|
Decision algorithm |
Rule-based: reducing number of choices / logit model for selecting the “best” option |
Input into decision |
Not mentioned |
Goals |
Authors’ opinion |
Work in progress
|
||
Model development process |
Concept |
Not mentioned |
Quantification of relationships |
Empirical data |
Name of model |
Modelling biodiversity and land use
|
|||
Sources |
||||
Technical data
|
||||
Application
area
|
Covered area, physical boundaries |
No explicit representation of a specific area. Urban region with surrounding area including wetlands |
Extent of area |
– |
Application
area
|
Spatial units |
No spatial resolution |
Size or grain of grids/zones |
– |
Time horizon |
Time step |
1 year |
Duration of model run |
S: 100 years |
Modelling approach |
Simulation technique |
System dynamics |
Qualitative or quantitative |
Qualitative |
Contents
|
||||
Main purpose |
Assessing the impact of urban sprawl on wetland biodiversity and
social welfare
|
|||
Main variables with relationships |
Population growth within city → higher population density and
more need for agricultural land → expansionists attempt to buy
surrounding area → change of wetland area to urban area &
more agriculture decrease wetland biodiversity → conservationists’
valuation of remaining biodiversity increases → conservationists
buy wetland area for nature protection
|
|||
Human
decision
making
|
Domain |
Human decision making is represented within system dynamics equations |
Temporal range |
1 year |
|
Typology (classes) of agents? |
Yes |
→ if yes: what types? |
Expansionists, conservationists (see above) and owners of land |
|
Decision algorithm |
Land is sold to the highest bidder |
Input into decision |
Prices offered by conservationists and expansionists. |
Goals |
Authors’ opinion |
First step for improving relationship between
economic development and biodiversity
|
||
Model development process |
Concept |
Not mentioned |
Quantification of relationships |
Not mentioned |
Name of model |
MOLAND
|
|||
Sources |
||||
Technical data
|
||||
Application
area
|
Covered area, physical boundaries |
Several examples across Europe and elsewhere |
Extent of area |
User-specified |
Application
area
|
Spatial units |
global: 1 zone / regional: zones, typically NUTS / local: grid cells |
Size or grain of grids/zones |
User-specified |
Time horizon |
Time step |
annual |
Duration of model run |
C: last 40 – 50 years / S: user-specified, normally 30 years |
|
Simulation technique |
Mainly rule-based cellular automata |
Qualitative or quantitative |
Quantitative |
Contents
|
||||
Main purpose |
To monitor developments of urban areas and identify trends at the
European level, focus is on growth scenarios
|
|||
Main variables with relationships |
Growth of economy and population (global level) → growth
in competing regions (regional level), sets boundaries for all
cells in a region → rules for land use change at the grid level:
physical suitability, institutional suitability (e.g., planning
documents), accessibility (via transport network), dynamics at
the local level (land use functions attracting or repelling each
other)
Feedback from grid level to regional level: spatial distribution
leads to quality and availability of space for different activities,
which influences comparative attractiveness of a region
|
|||
Human
decision
making
|
Domain |
No explicit decision making |
Temporal range |
– |
|
Typology (classes) of agents? |
– |
→ if yes: what types? |
– |
|
Decision algorithm |
– |
Input into decision |
– |
Goals |
Authors’ opinion |
Achieved
|
||
Model development process |
Concept |
Not mentioned |
Quantification of relationships |
Calibration with historical data |
Name of model |
PUMA (Predicting Urbanisation with Multi-Agents)
|
|||
Sources |
||||
Technical data
|
||||
Application
area
|
Covered area, physical boundaries |
North Dutch Ranstadt (including Amsterdam, Utrecht, Schiphol airport) |
Extent of area |
3.16 million inhabitants |
Application
area
|
Spatial units |
Grid cells (and travel zones) |
Size or grain of grids/zones |
500 × 500 m |
Time horizon |
Time step |
1 year / later: up to daily |
Duration of model run |
S: 2000 to approx. 2050 |
Modelling approach |
Simulation technique |
Agent-based simulation |
Qualitative or quantitative |
Quantitative |
Contents
|
||||
Main purpose |
Predicting urbanisation using behavioural agents
|
|||
Main variables with relationships |
Demographic change → decisions of individuals → land use
change / Not yet implemented: developers, authorities and
firms/institutions (so far exogenous) [impact of household’s
decisions on land use not described]
|
|||
Human
decision
making
|
Domain |
1. demographic
events (no
decisions, just
stochastic)
2. residential
relocation
3. job changes
|
Temporal range |
Annual [Daily decisions in future work] |
|
Typology (classes) of agents? |
Yes |
→ if yes: what types? |
Households: Number of adults and children; age of household head [dwellings are agents as well] |
|
Decision algorithm |
Rational choice with utility maximisation |
Input into decision |
Residential relocation: characteristics of dwelling, commuting distance, socio-demographics / Job choice: salary, job type, distance to dwelling, personal preferences… |
Goals |
Authors’ opinion |
Promising approach, still work in progress
|
||
Model development process |
Concept |
Empirical data |
Quantification of relationships |
Empirical data |
Name of model |
Rotterdam urban dynamics
|
|||
Sources |
||||
Technical data
|
||||
Application
area
|
Covered area, physical boundaries |
Rotterdam |
Extent of area |
100,000 acres |
Application
area
|
Spatial units |
16 grid cells called “zones” |
Size or grain of grids/zones |
Squares with 3,125 miles each side |
Time horizon |
Time step |
|
Duration of model run |
S: 250 years |
Modelling approach |
Simulation technique |
System dynamics |
Qualitative or quantitative |
Quantitative |
Contents
|
||||
Main purpose |
Redefining the model of urban dynamics by Forrester (1969*),
including: 1. spatial dimension (16 squares) and 2. disaggregation:
different types of housing, industry, and people in zones
|
|||
Main variables with relationships |
Bi-directional causal loops between: population, housing
availability, houses, land availability, business structures, and job
availability (linked with population) / Two markets: labor market
and housing market compete for land / (no transportation)
|
|||
Human
decision
making
|
Domain |
No explicit decision making |
Temporal range |
– |
|
Typology (classes) of agents? |
– |
→ if yes: what types? |
– |
|
Decision algorithm |
– |
Input into decision |
– |
Goals |
Authors’ opinion |
Case of Rotterdam only as an example for
generic results
|
||
Model development process |
Concept |
Not mentioned |
Quantification of relationships |
Out of statistical data and expert knowledge |
Name of model |
SCOPE (South Coast Outlook and Participation Experience)
|
|||
Sources |
||||
Technical data
|
||||
Application
area
|
Covered area, physical boundaries |
South Coast of Santa Barbara County |
Extent of area |
137,000 acres / Approx. 200,000 inhabitants |
Application
area
|
Spatial units |
No spatial resolution |
Size or grain of grids/zones |
– |
Time horizon |
Time step |
|
Duration of model run |
V: 1960 – 2000 / S: 2000 – 2040 |
Modelling approach |
Simulation technique |
System dynamics |
Qualitative or quantitative |
Quantitative |
Contents
|
||||
Main purpose |
Simulation model to provide scenarios for future land use in Santa
Barbara, e.g., with restrictions to urban growth
|
|||
Main variables with relationships |
Five sectors: housing, population, business, quality of life, land use
|
|||
Human
decision
making
|
Domain |
No explicit decision making |
Temporal range |
– |
|
Typology (classes) of agents? |
– |
→ if yes: what types? |
– |
|
Decision algorithm |
– |
Input into decision |
– |
Goals |
Authors’ opinion |
Achieved, but should still become more
differentiated.
|
||
Model development process |
Concept |
Expert knowledge |
Quantification of relationships |
Assumptions and statistical data |
Name of model |
Simulation of polycentric urban growth dynamics through agents
|
|||
Sources |
||||
Technical data
|
||||
Application
area
|
Covered area, physical boundaries |
Austrian Rhine valley with medium-sized centres and rural villages |
Extent of area |
7,330 hectares built-up area / 260,000 inhabitants |
Application
area
|
Spatial units |
Grid cells |
Size or grain of grids/zones |
50 × 50 m cells |
Time horizon |
Time step |
Simulation stops when certain household, population and workplace growth numbers are achieved |
Duration of model run |
V: 1990 – 2000 / S: user-specified |
Modelling approach |
Simulation technique |
Agent-based simulation |
Qualitative or quantitative |
Quantitative |
Contents
|
||||
Main purpose |
Development of built-up area in peri-urban region, driven by
households and entrepreneurs; urban growth with different growth
rates
|
|||
Main variables with relationships |
Initialisation: increase of household and workplace numbers is
defined
1. Municipality choice depending on regional attractiveness
criteria (numbers of people, households and workplaces in the
start of the year, average travel time to district centres and
capital city, average share of attractive land-use classes in the
municipality (open space, forest area) → household growth
and workplace growth per municipality → transformation of
absolute values into relative search frequencies → agents choose
municipality via discrete choice
2. Local target area search: start with random cell, choosing
most attractive cell
3. land use change (new built-up area, higher density) →
influencing local attractiveness
|
|||
Human
decision
making
|
Domain |
Causing the construction of new built-up area or the densification of existing area, no moving as ‘exchange’ of dwellings |
Temporal range |
Long-term (moving / start-up of companies) |
|
Typology (classes) of agents? |
Yes |
→ if yes: what types? |
Four household types (1, 2, 3 or 4 persons) and two entrepreneurs (small and large) |
|
Decision algorithm |
Discrete choice |
Input into decision |
Regional and local attractiveness |
Goals |
Authors’ opinion |
Achieved
|
||
Model development process |
Concept |
Empirical data |
Quantification of relationships |
Empirical data |
Name of model |
SLEUTH (Slope, Landuse, Exclusion, Urban Extend,
Transportation and Hillshade)
|
|||
Sources |
||||
Technical data
|
||||
Application
area
|
Covered area, physical boundaries |
Numerous applications, mostly U.S. |
Extent of area |
User-specified |
Application
area
|
Spatial units |
Grid cells |
Size or grain of grids/zones |
Input for model: 8-bit GIF (100 × 100 m cells can be converted) |
Time horizon |
Time step |
1 year |
Duration of model run |
C: at least 4 time steps / S: User-specified |
Modelling approach |
Simulation technique |
Cellular automata |
Qualitative or quantitative |
Quantitative |
Contents
|
||||
Main purpose |
Modelling urban growth, scenarios for future development of an
urban region
|
|||
Main variables with relationships |
Two components (use depends on available data):
(1) Urban growth: cells have one of two states: urban or non
urban
(2) Urban land use change with different land-use types
Four types of growth behaviour: spontaneous, diffusive
(with new growth centres), organic (into surroundings) and
road-influenced
Five main coefficients: diffusion, breed, spread, slope, and road
coefficient (need to be calibrated for each case study)
Self modification rules: e.g., concerning the kind of exponential
or S-curve growth; denser road network → road gravity factor
increases; land availability decreases → slope resistance factor is
decreased (more hilly areas); spread factor increases over time
|
|||
Human
decision
making
|
Domain |
No explicit decision making |
Temporal range |
– |
|
Typology (classes) of agents? |
– |
→ if yes: what types? |
– |
|
Decision algorithm |
– |
Input into decision |
– |
Goals |
Authors’ opinion |
Achieved
|
||
Model development process |
Concept |
Not mentioned |
Quantification of relationships |
Calibration using historical maps |
Name of model |
Urban dynamics
|
|||
Sources |
||||
Technical data
|
||||
Application
area
|
Covered area, physical boundaries |
Either suburban or core area (Forrester 1969: 2) / Examples mentioned in Alfeld, 1995: Lowell, Boston, Concord, Marlborough, Palm Coast |
Extent of area |
User-specified |
Application
area
|
Spatial units |
No spatial resolution |
Size or grain of grids/zones |
– |
Time horizon |
Time step |
|
Duration of model run |
S: Up to 250 years |
Modelling approach |
Simulation technique |
System dynamics |
Qualitative or quantitative |
Quantitative |
Contents
|
||||
Main purpose |
Modelling urban system in general, explicitly including “urban
decline.” Examples: focus on a specific topic, e.g., rapid population
growth, demolition, et cetera, and therefore need specific models.
|
|||
Main variables with relationships |
Original model by Forrester: Three subsystems: business, housing,
population
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|||
Human
decision
making
|
Domain |
No explicit decision making |
Temporal range |
– |
|
Typology (classes) of agents? |
– |
→ if yes: what types? |
– |
|
Decision algorithm |
– |
Input into decision |
– |
Goals |
Authors’ opinion |
Achieved
|
||
Model development process |
Concept |
Expert knowledge |
Quantification of relationships |
Statistical data and own estimation |
Name of model |
Simulating the urban transformation process in the Haaglanden
region in the Netherlands
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|||
Sources |
||||
Technical data
|
||||
Application
area
|
Covered area, physical boundaries |
The Haaglanden region, including the Hague and surrounding suburbs |
Extent of area |
|
Application
area
|
Spatial units |
No spatial resolution |
Size or grain of grids/zones |
– |
Time horizon |
Time step |
|
Duration of model run |
S: 1998 – 2010 |
Modelling approach |
Simulation technique |
System dynamics |
Qualitative or quantitative |
Qualitative |
Contents
|
||||
Main purpose |
Assessing the impact of future policy interventions on the social
housing market (specific: rate of building new dwellings)
|
|||
Main variables with relationships |
Four stocks:
1 Commercial housing stock
2 Social housing stock
3 Waiting families
4 Supply of available social houses
Processes involved: Migration, demolition, construction
|
|||
Human
decision
making
|
Domain |
No explicit decision making |
Temporal range |
– |
|
Typology (classes) of agents? |
– |
→ if yes: what types? |
– |
|
Decision algorithm |
– |
Input into decision |
– |
Goals |
Authors’ opinion |
Model is useful for its goal
|
||
|
Validation |
No (but impact of process on stakeholders is monitored) |
Plausibility analysis |
With stakeholders |
Model development process |
Concept |
Participation of stakeholders, narrative approach |
Quantification of relationships |
Empirical data or expert guesses. |
Name of model |
A system dynamics model for the urban travel system
|
|||
Sources |
||||
Technical data
|
||||
Application
area
|
Covered area, physical boundaries |
Hypothetical city |
Extent of area |
– |
Application
area
|
Spatial units |
No spatial resolution |
Size or grain of grids/zones |
– |
Time horizon |
Time step |
|
Duration of model run |
S: 20 years into the future |
Modelling approach |
Simulation technique |
System dynamics |
Qualitative or quantitative |
Quantitative |
Contents
|
||||
Main purpose |
To simulate medium- and long-term effects of urban transport
policies with reference to sustainable travel
|
|||
Main variables with relationships |
Seven major blocks: urbanisation, internal travel demand (trips
within system), car ownership, external travel demand (inflowing,
outflowing and through traffic), transportation (comparing supply
and demand) and evaluation (socioeconomic and environmental
appraisals)
|
|||
Human
decision
making
|
Domain |
No explicit decision making |
Temporal range |
– |
|
Typology (classes) of agents? |
– |
→ if yes: what types? |
– |
|
Decision algorithm |
– |
Input into decision |
– |
Goals |
Authors’ opinion |
Work in progress
|
||
Model development process |
Concept |
Expert knowledge |
Quantification of relationships |
Expert knowledge and statistical values |
Name of model |
UrbanSim
|
|||
Sources |
||||
Technical data
|
||||
Application
area
|
Covered area, physical boundaries |
Several examples in the U.S., Europe and Asia |
Extent of area |
User-specified |
Application
area
|
Spatial units |
Initially: mixture of parcels and zones / later: grid |
Size or grain of grids/zones |
User-specified / Cell: 150 × 150 m regarded as default |
Time horizon |
Time step |
1 year |
Duration of model run |
User-specified |
Modelling approach |
Simulation technique |
Coupled simulation models including agent-based simulations |
Qualitative or quantitative |
Quantitative |
Contents
|
||||
Main purpose |
Link between transportation and land use; impact of different
planning strategies
|
|||
Main variables with relationships |
Exogenous: (1) macroeconomics (population, employment) and
(2) travel demand (travel conditions). Six models:
1 Accessibility (output: access to workplaces and shops for each
cell)
2 Transition (output: number of new jobs and new households
per year)
3 Mobility (output: number of moving (existing) jobs /
households)
4 Location (output: location of new or moving jobs /
households)
5 Real Estate Development (output: land use change)
6 Land price (output: land prices)
|
|||
Human
decision
making
|
Domain |
Mobility and location |
Temporal range |
Depends on issues |
|
Typology (classes) of agents? |
Initially households / firms, later persons / jobs |
→ if yes: what types? |
User-specified |
|
Decision algorithm |
Multinomial logit model |
Input into decision |
Land-use itself, socio-demographics, dwellings |
Goals |
Authors’ opinion |
Achieved
|
||
Model development process |
Concept |
Not mentioned |
Quantification of relationships |
Out of empirical data |